Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."